The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI)™ Edges Up for the First Time in 16 Months

June 8, 2009

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI)™ saw a small uptick in May. The index now stands at 89.9, increasing 0.2 percent from the revised April figure of 89.7, and down 20 percent from a year ago.

"While it is too early to say that the ETI has bottomed, the moderation of the last two months is certainly a sign that the decline in job losses is real and signals that the worst is over," said Gad Levanon, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. "However, as the economic recovery over the coming months is likely to be very slow, we still expect the unemployment rate to continue to increase to double digits by the end of this year and into 2010."

This month, the components of the Employment Trends Index™ showed a mixed picture. The improving indicators were the Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Percentage of respondents who say they find "Jobs Hard to Get," Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales and Job Openings.

The Employment Trends Index™ aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index™ include:

• Percentage of respondents who say they find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey)
  
  
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
  
  
• Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (National Federation of Independent Business)
  
  
• Number of employees hired by the temporary-help industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
  Part-time Workers for Economic Reasons (BLS)
  
  
• Job Openings (BLS)
  
  
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
  
  
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index™ monthly, at 10 a.m. ET on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment situation report. The technical notes are included here.

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